I have been a big fan and frequent drafter of Troy Tulowitzki. I have ridden his hot streaks right through fantasy playoffs and onto the championship. But he is not without risk, and that risk is primarily is health. It is hard to predict injuries, it is often a fluke injury sliding into home plate, or washing your RV. Tulowitzki has shown however a tendency to get injured enough that it must be a factor in your decision making. If an owner can get 500+ at bats out of Tulowitzki in 2014, that owner is looking at 30 home run, 100 runs batted in guy.
So lets say that he is worth the draft spot, and we take him. Lets say that he does get his 500 at bats, what are we worried about now? Sure he enjoys hitting in Coors field but he is also under contract with the Rockies for some time. Plus Tulowitzki is no slouch on the road. 11 of his 25 home runs last year came on the road, as well as his .281 batting average while on the road.
And his career home and road splits:
Tulowitzki is a risky top pick, but after the first handful or so picks, there are not many players without some sort of risk. Considering the short stop eligibility, why not take the risk on a short stop who could come up big?
Jacoby Ellsbury got his big contract for the Yankees, and will require an equally high investment in fantasy draft rooms. But what are you investing in exactly? In 2013 Ellsbury put together a fine season:
The stolen bases really stand out in this stat line. He will supply runs and a good batting average as well, but is he a first rounder? I have found that you can typically find stolen bases later in the draft. They may not come from as balanced of a player, but I’d prefer to pick up power in the early rounds. You want to argue that Ellsbury can hit for power? You think he will benefit from the jet stream going to right field at the new Yankee stadium? Lets take a look.
In 2011 Ellsbury was fantasy gold, added power to his speed game.
I quite simply do not buy the power numbers, I think they were some sort of mirage. His home run totals since have been, 4 and 9, and I do not think Yankee stadium will be a big help. In that awesome 2011 season Ellsbury hit 4 home runs at Yankee stadium.
These are his career numbers at the new Yankee Stadium:
Notice the home run numbers are the same. I will prefer to find my stolen bases elsewhere and wait on Ellsbury, unless he falls enough in draft, which I do not expect him too.
My 2014 Projection for Ellsbury: