Masahiro Tanaka 2014 Fantasy Profile

Masahiro Tanka has signed with the Yankees.  Now that we know where he will be doing his pitching, it is time to look at what we can expect from a fantasy perspective for 2014.  There are two major exercises I undertook to project Tanaka.  First was to take a look at Dan Haren‘s numbers as a 25, 26, and 27 year old.  The reason I pulled up Haren’s numbers is because his pitch arsenal most reflects Tanaka’s.

Dan Haren
Year Age W ERA IP SO WHIP
2006 25 14 4.12 223 176 1.206
2007 26 15 3.07 222.2 192 1.208
2008 27 16 3.33 216 206 1.13

The second undertaking was to analyze Tanaka’s stats from Japan.  In order to do this I pulled up Yu Darvish‘s last two years in Japan and compared them to his first two yeas with the Rangers.  I found that Darvish’s wins, innings pitched, and strike out numbers were fairly similar between leagues.  His average ERA was 2.09x higher than his average ERA in Japan, and his average WHIP was 1.27x higher than his average whip in Japan.

Darvish in Japan W ERA IP SO WHIP
10 & ’11 AVG 15 1.61 217 249 0.92
Darvish in MLB W ERA IP SO WHIP
12 & ’13 AVG 15 3.37 200 249 1.18
2.09x 1.28x

If we apply these adjustments to Tanaka’s stats over the last 3 years this is what his MLB projection would look like.

Tanaka in Japan W ERA IP SO WHIP
11 ’12 ’13 AVG 18 1.47 204 198 0.95
Tanaka MLB Projection W ERA IP SO WHIP
17 3.07 200 197 1.21

“Converting” his stats in Japan to the MLB ends up looking fairly similar to Haren’s numbers as a 25-27 year old.  This isn’t an exact science of course, but if Tanaka can get somewhere around these numbers, he should be valuable on any fantasy roster.

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