Websites projected values for players in an auction league will often times be far from what is actually spent in keeper league drafts. There is a very specific reason for this. The reason is that after teams have kept players at a good value there will be more money to spend on players than the player’s actual auction value. If you have participated in keeper league drafts you have probably noticed this. Suddenly players are going for far more than their projected value.
There is a formula to calculate this inflation so that you can know what a player is really worth come draft day.
I will use a league in italics as an example, these numbers may be different for your league.
Step 1. Take your teams starting budget and multiply that by teams in the league. We will say that total money in the league is “T”.
$260 budget x 12 teams = $3,120.
Step 2. Once keeper players are declared subtract the total $ being used on keepers in the league (K) from “T”. This will leave you with the remaining money for the draft, “R”
$3,120 – $1,000 on Keepers = $2,120 remaining for the draft.
Step 3. Now whatever K equals is typically players under their value. So you want to also calculate the players actual value “A” being kept. Ex. You have Trout at $5(K) but his Actual Value is $40(A).
Actual value of players being kept $1,500.
Step 4. Subtract the actual value (A) from the total money in your league (T). T – A= value of free agents in the draft (F).
$3,120 – $1,500 = $1,620 this is the value of free agents in the draft.
Step 5. Now divide the money remaining to spend in the draft “R” by the value in the free agent pool (F) to find your inflation % (I).
You have $2,120 to spend on $1,620 of talent. 2,120 / 1,620 = 1.31
Step 6. Now multiply (I) by players you are targeting to draft and their projected value.
Adrian Gonzalez projects at $25 x 1.31 = I am willing to spend $32 on A-Gon.